Death in Iraq - Chance vs. Reality

What is the chance of someone dying in Iraq vs. the reality of a family's emotions?

My older brother ships out to Iraq in 2 weeks for his first six-month tour. This has suddenly added a new dimension to my life, but also a way to connect with the world and real life as a whole - it is the first time I am seeing someone I intimately know going off to war. What is most interesting is to see how this affects those around him - everything from our parents expressing deep sorrow to see their oldest son go to war, to our younger brother just starting to understand the reality of it, to my older brother's long-time girlfriend start to show a few signs of panic at the sudden reality of it. I'm not going to touch upon the arguments for or against the war, nor do I want to go into the politics of it. Rather, I am more interested in how this is affecting not only my family, but also the families of all those that are at war in Iraq.

What does it mean to see someone you love (a brother, a father, a sister, a husband or wife) go off to war knowing that there is a chance they will die? To often many of us in the United States have grown up with only a Hollywood version of war - one that is presented to us by the media. This in turn leads to many (myself included) having only a vague and surrealistic notion of war and it's true effects on people. I do not consider myself to be knowledgeable in this area - I've never been in the military or seen anyone killed, nor suffered any of the real hardships of man's constant violence. So when you see someone you love ship off to war, there is a fear that you will never see them again, but if you are like me there is the surrealistic part of it that makes you feel as if they are just going on some prolonged trip. How can this be? How can you look into the eyes of a loved one and feel the fear of losing them but also feel disconnected as if it is only a dream?

I believe part of this is due to what I will call the "chance of death" - that is, how likely is it for someone (in this case my brother) to die while at war in Iraq. Please do not think this is a cold, calculated, or inhumane action on my part - it is simply one way that my different mind is trying to come to terms that I might never be able to see my older brother again in my life. I am, as the title of this blog suggests, trying to present an alter thinking. Also please know that I do not claim to be a mathematician - all of these calculations are rough ones done by me.

As of March 19th, 2007, the Pentagon has reported 3,197 U.S. soldiers have died in the Iraq War. I searched but could not find any reliable current statistics on how many total troops have served in Iraq. According to about.com, almost 1,000,000 US soldiers had served in Iraq by January 2005. If you figure that as almost the halfway point in this (so far) four year war, then it would be safe to assume that the number is significantly higher than that. Since a lot of soldiers have gone on redeployment for two or three tours now, we can't just double the number of total troops that have served in Iraq. Nevertheless, there has been quite a few people who have either left or joined the military over the past four years. Given that our current military is approximately 2.5 million people (Active Duty/Reserve/National Guard), I believe it is a safe assumption to put the total number of U.S. troops who have served in Iraq at 1.5 million. Now let's look at those statistics - 3,197/1,500,000 troops have died while in Iraq. That's only .2%

This means that any given soldier in Iraq will have a .2% chance of dying. Now statistically that's a ridiculously low percentage and a much lower chance of death than several other occupations I could think of. So by the sheer chance of it, I shouldn't be worried about my brother dying in Iraq. However, we aren't purely rational beings - we live by our emotions as well as our rational thoughts. My reality, and the reality of many other families, is that I should be concerned for my brother and his life. And I do, but always with a part of me that feels guilty for looking at the odds and feeling that it's no big deal.